ISSUES POSITION PAPER

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Kees Zwanenburg
Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Halifax, Nova Scotia

 

The Incorporation of Local Fisheries Knowledge into the Fish Stock Assessment Process

 

Introduction

It has been the contention of fishermen and others that there is a large store of local knowledge which should be incorporated into the assessment of fish resources. It has been said that if such information had been incorporated into the assessment process over the history of this process, the resources may not have declined to the extent that many of them have. Before one can debate whether or not this is so or begin to determine how such information might be used, there are a number of fundamental questions that need to be answered. The most obvious of these are what is meant by local knowledge, what is meant by fish resource assessment, and what are the objectives of combining the two.

One view of the objectives of fish resource assessments and the management of those resources based upon advice stemming from such assessment, is to ensure the long-term sustainability of Canada's fisheries. Although it has not been clearly defined exactly what this means it surely implies that these resources should only be exploited to the extent that there is good expectation of future generations being able to exploit them at roughly similar rates. Although this is very inexact it does give the idea that we should be resource stewards rather than extracting profit from them at any cost to their future. This however is only one possible vision. Another equally possible objective of fisheries management could be, to extract the maximum amount of profit from the resource within the most appropriate time-frame and without regard for future resource viability. Fishermen probably hold the entire range of opinions about possible objectives for fisheries management, from long-sustainability of our fisheries to the maximization of short-term profit only. Fisheries scientists and managers on the other hand are responsible for ensuring the long-term sustainability of the fishery. This will put them in conflict with some fishermen and will put them in agreement with others, a fact relevant to the incorporation of local knowledge in that it provides motive or incentive to fishermen to report their knowledge in a manner consistent with their objectives. It their objectives include an aspect of long-term sustainability, or a notion of wanting to pass on the resource to their future generations, reporting of knowledge is likely to be more or less consistent with the objectives of fisheries scientists, meaning that knowledge will be passed on without interpretation. If their objectives are to maximize short-term profit without reference to the future, there is incentive to interpret observations and report knowledge in a manner that minimizes the restrictions put on that profit. An example would be the under-reporting of catch. Under a TAC base management system non-reporting of catches precludes the closure of the fishery by ensuring that the TAC is never actually reached, at least on paper. It also leads to over-exploitation of the fisheries which may have an impact on long-term viability. Even in the case where a fisherman "believes" in the objective of long-term sustainability, economic realities can potentially influence the objectivity with which local knowledge would be provided. It is against this background that local knowledge needs to be interpreted. It implies that there is a need for assuring ourselves that the data are reliable in that they represent the "truth" as nearly as is possible.

Conflicts over resource exploitation between fisheries scientists and fishermen have arisen many times in the past. One reason for this is the desire, on the part of some fishermen, to fish without limit and without regard for the future of the resource. Another, and equally serious reason for conflict is the lack of agreement between fisheries scientists/managers, and fishermen on the condition or abundance of the stocks being exploited. In some instances fisheries scientists conclude on the basis of their analyses that a particular stock is being or has been depleted, while the fishermen exploiting that resource maintain that this is not so, based on their observations from the fishery. Sometimes fishermen maintain such a position in the absence of any real belief that it is true, because of purely economic considerations. Maintaining such a position has, in the past, resulted in increased profits through increases in TAC levels. At other times these conflicts arise because there is genuine puzzlement, the fishermen genuinely believe their observations to indicate the opposite of what the "scientists" say. In these situations it is likely that the co-operative exploration of how and what segments of local knowledge could be incorporated into the resource assessment process, could resolve such conflicts and result in both parties gaining new and useful insights into how these resources should be exploited and managed.

It needs to be made clear at the outset that there should be room in this process to change radically our approach to resource assessments as well as the way in which fishermen operate. Although most of what follows will be written in the context of the process as it is presently defined, there needs to be an understanding that it is not necessarily the only way to do the job. Neither is it sensible to throw the baby out with the bath water. There are clearly elements of the present resource assessment process which are "right" and should be preserved. An example of this is the issue of using only the most reliable information on which to base decisions. It is not sensible or desirable to develop a process based on unreliable information, opinion, folklore or hearsay. Although the insistence on reliable and verifiable information will present us with many problems in our attempts to incorporate local knowledge, without it we would be building a house of cards.

 

Resource Assessment

It is useful to begin by defining what is meant by resource assessment, since this will dictate, to some extent, the kind of local knowledge that may be relevant to the process. Fish resource assessment, in its simplest present definition is the process of estimating, with the highest degree of reliability, two aspects of any self-reproducing population of fish. The first is determining how many of them there are in the population now, and the second is determining how many there will be next fishing season. Although this is somewhat simplified, it is in essence what the process tries to accomplish.

At present, determining how many fish there are is done through surveys. The most prevalent gear type used to conduct surveys are otter trawlers because they are relatively non-selective and can survey large geographic areas in a relatively short time. The non-selective nature of the gear type (research trawls use _ inch liners in the cod end) is advantageous in that a single survey can be used to determine the abundance of a number of species and size classes at once. Estimating the number of fish that will be in the population the following year is a more multifaceted process which uses information from surveys, estimates of removals from catch statistics, and a wide variety of biological information on population age structure, growth rates, maturation schedules, and the relationship between present population numbers and future recruitment.

 

Local Fisheries Knowledge

Local fisheries knowledge, in its broadest sense, is the wealth of experience that has been accumulated over time by fishermen fishing in any given area. It includes every aspect of fishing from local weather conditions, to vessel operation, to the rigging of fishing gear, to sale of the catch, and everything in between. It is the knowledge which defines the "fishing way of life" for that particular area and sets it apart from other ways of making a living. Not each fisherman in any given area necessarily has all of the local knowledge at his or her disposal, he or she may not even have access to it all. For example, fishermen tend to be secretive about certain aspects of the local knowledge base which they feel gives them a competitive advantage over other fishermen or over any restrictive management system. This may include such things as exact times and places to fish, the specific rigging of gear to capture particular species, or the total amount of fish of any or all species caught. So although the local fisheries knowledge is that accumulated by all fishermen, not all fishermen have all the information. It also means that documenting the sum total knowledge would require talking to all of the fishermen in the area rather than a selected few. One might question whether or not the sum total of all local knowledge is required as input to the assessment process.

Local knowledge can be classified into two broad categories, qualitative knowledge, meaning that it is not gathered by measuring things, and quantitative knowledge, which means that it is gathered by measuring things. An example of qualitative knowledge would be a person's memory of how cold a particular winter was relative to another, while quantitative information would be the actual temperature records for each of the winters in question. In addition to these two broad categories, information can be recorded in a variety of ways. Much of what makes up local knowledge is recorded in the memories of people, while, in general, only a small fraction is actually recorded in written or other form. Unfortunately for anyone who wishes to use local knowledge in any highly formalized process such as fish stock assessment, memories are rarely perfect and tend to become less reliable as time passes. Even if the information stored in memory is only a few days or weeks old, it is usually less reliable than that which has been recorded (on paper or some other medium) within minutes or hours of the event. Just try to remember what you had for lunch last Tuesday.

The fact that most local knowledge resides in memory makes it imperative that we develop reliable ways of gathering that information and ways to ensuring that it represents the "truth" as closely as is reasonably possible. Social scientists have been gathering and working with these kinds of data for quite a long-term and it is likely that we can learn a lot from them in setting up data collection protocols to collect particular portions of the local knowledge which resides mainly in memories. It is not appropriate to discuss these methods in the present discussion, however one general result that they have discovered is that since the only way to collect this information is through questionnaires or interviews, the questions asked have to be very carefully prepared to make sure that they are as unbiased as possible. Biased questions lead to the collection of biased information. An simplistic example of a biased question from which to determine a fisherman's primary source of income might be something like "Did you make more money this year from cod or haddock?", without providing the respondent an opportunity to state that most of his income actually came from lobster. Using the results of this question to given some indication of which species contributed most to income would give a very misleading picture.

Local knowledge can be further classified as historical and current. Although the boundary between these types of information is somewhat arbitrary it may be best to think of the historical knowledge as that portion of local knowledge against which current information is judged. An example of historical knowledge might be that winters are colder than summer. This means that a -15ūC day in January would come as no surprise, whereas a 30ūC day during that same month would be a great surprise. Historical knowledge can take many forms ranging from a general knowledge of fish distribution to effects of weather on catch rates for particular species, to the exact manner or rigging particular gear to catch particular species.

Historical local knowledge is also that portion of the knowledge base that allows fishermen to make predictions on the basis of present conditions. An example of this might be the association of certain wind directions and/or velocities with particular expectations of catch rates, either high or low. Short term predictions like these are used to make decisions about the days activities namely whether or not to go fishing, or how much effort to expend. Historical knowledge is also used to make longer-term predictions. An example of this was quoted in a recent publication by Finlayson (1994) where it was indicated that the Newfoundland inshore trap fishermen were quoted as having predicted the decline in the northern cod stock by observing significant declines in their cod-trap catch rates and the size composition of the cod-trap catches during the mid-1980s. The inshore fishermen's contention appeared to be that the offshore fleet was exerting such heavy fishing pressure that there were no fish left to come ashore and be caught in their traps. The reduction in size composition was apparently also seen as an indicator of overexploitation. These observations in tandem, it was claimed, led to the prediction that there had been, and would continue to be a drastic decline in the overall abundance of the Northern cod stock.

In neither the Northern cod situation, where fishermen were making long-term predictions about an overall decline in a resource, or in the situation where a decision to fish or not to fish on a particular day is based on weather observation is the underlying mechanism necessarily understood. The predictions could be based on the observed long-term association or correlation of particular observations or events to which cause and effect are ascribed. Although predictions based on such correlated observations may be reliable most of the time there are no guarantees. Just how reliable such predictions are depends (at least in part) on how often the predictions have been put to the test. The prediction of relative catch rates based on weather conditions are likely to have been tested enough times that individuals feel relatively confident in using it to make what amount to business decisions which will have a direct impact on their incomes. In the case of the predictions about changes in the overall abundance of the Northern cod it is difficult to judge whether or not the associations used would be reliable on average or not. In this case, the resource indeed declined but it is uncertain how many times in the past such claims have been made without the observed decline. The fundamental difference between the two examples is that in the case of the association of wind and catch rates, the "theory" can be tested frequently, whereas for Northern cod, or for any other fish stock, predictions can be tested with only a fraction of the frequency. Such a limited set of observations make if difficult to judge the generality of the predictions being made, it makes it difficult for people to accept the predictions.

In the present model of resource assessments historical knowledge can only be incorporated if it is quantitative and if it has been formally recorded and is more or less verifiable. This means that the vast majority of historical local knowledge is not available to the process. Most fishermen have not recorded all of the details of their fishing operations in a logbooks. The challenge therefore is to find a way to make the informal historical local knowledge acceptable to the process or fundamentally to change the process so that the need for formal recorded and verifiable information is removed. Although the resource assessment process is likely to change in many ways in the near future, it is unlikely that it will function without some kind of formally structured, verifiable input data, it is therefore probably more fruitful to look for ways of formalizing the local historical knowledge than to reply on the changes the process to obviate the necessity of such data.

There have been calls for fundamental changes to the assessment process, one of which is more and effective incorporation of local knowledge into the process. The belief is that by using this additional source of information, it will be possible to make better predictions about future fish abundance. On the other hand there are those who maintain that the whole idea of predicting next year's fish abundance based on this year's information, with any reasonable degree of accuracy, is impossible. If this were the case then no amount of information, local or otherwise, will allow us to make predictions were would be assuming that the ecosystem which is being harvested is a chaotic system with regard to fish production. The word chaotic here essentially means unpredictable. Most knowledgeable individuals however, content that, although the system is variable, and although there are likely some chaotic components, there is enough predictability in the system to make it worthwhile trying. The challenge then, is to determine to what degree the system is predictable and what can be used to make those predictions. At present the suite of variables used is relatively limited, and it is possible that by incorporating local knowledge we use a broader base of variables on which to make predictions. This may mean that our concept of what is acceptable as reliable input data could be significantly modified. It may also mean that the models that we presently use the data in, may change from what they are now. It is, however, unlikely that these changes will include giving up the concept of reliable verifiable data upon which to base our predictions.

 

What of Incorporate

Before discussing the particular elements of local knowledge which may be amenable for incorporation into the assessment process, there is a potential role for local knowledge in the more general role of defining areas of research of relevance to the stock assessment process. There is a precedence for this in the field of pharmaceutical development. In this case, local lore regarding the medicinal properties of plants is recorded and used to identify plants of potential interest to pharmaceutical manufacturers. In the case of fisheries such local knowledge could be used to identify processes relevant to the assessment of fish resources. In particular, local knowledge about indicators of resource abundance or of recruitment should be recorded, evaluated for feasibility in developing independent indices of population attributes.

 

I. Fish Distribution and Surveys of Abundance of Target Species

The simple definition of the assessment process given above helps in defining what portion of the local knowledge might be explored for incorporation. Historical knowledge of fish distribution may be extremely valuable for use in the present assessment process, particularly in modifying present surveys designed to determine abundance. Under the present stock assessment model, each stock is defined as a more or less independently reproducing population of fish which is separate from other such stocks. Most of the stocks, as presently defined, occupy very large geographic areas, for example 4VsW or Eastern Scotian Shelf cod occupy all of NAFO divisions 4V and 4W, an area of many thousands of square miles of ocean. It is assumed that all of the cod occurring in this area belong to a single reproducing population. In order to estimate the abundance of this population, therefore, the entire area must be surveyed over a relatively short time. If it took too long, say months, the number of fish could change significantly due to fish dying or being added to the population by recruitment between the beginning and end of the survey. The approach that has been taken for these surveys is to subdivide the entire stock area into smaller areas which share some common features such as depth. Subdivision of a large stock area (called stratification) is done to make the problem of estimating overall abundance from a survey of what amounts to only a small portion of their area more tractable. By stratifying we make the assumption that within each of the subdivisions (or strata) the relative abundance of fish is different from the relative abundance in other strata. For example, Emerald Basin is defined as a single stratum as is Emerald Bank. We know from experience that the abundance of cod and haddock in Emerald Basin is lower on average than it is on Emerald Bank. We have also learned that no matter where you fish within Emerald Basin, the abundance is relatively low, and conversely that no matter where you fish in Emerald Bank, the abundance of cod and haddock is relatively high. Notice that here the word relatively means that the catch rates are being compared only between Emerald Basin and Emerald Bank, and not to catch rates on the eastern Scotian Shelf in general. This does not mean that there are not a few places in Emerald Basin where on occasion you would not catch more cod or haddock than on Emerald Bank, but that on average this is not the case. We assume from these observations that within the strata the distribution of cod and haddock is relatively uniform. This means that the all portion of a stratum are similar as far as the distribution of cod and haddock goes. Therefore, to make the job of estimating overall abundance of, say 4VsW cod, somewhat tractable we assign a certain number of survey sets (tows) to each of the strata rather than randomly to the stock area as a whole. From the results of these tows we estimate the abundance of each stratum simply by multiplying the total number caught in the portion of the stratum surveyed by the total area of the stratum. This is done by calculating how much bottom area the trawl sweeps in a standard tow and then determining how many tows it would take to cover the whole area. Once this is determined we can multiply the observed average catch per tow from all tows done in the area by the number of tows it would take to cover the whole stratum to determine the total number or weight of fish present in the stratum. Adding the abundance estimates for each stratum gives us an estimate of abundance in the whole stock area.

One of the assumptions in this is that all portions of a stratum are alike. Some of these strata are very large (Figure 1). Fishermen fish in very specific locations which are usually much smaller than the survey strata as presently defined. If there are certain areas within stratas where fishermen fish in preference to other areas, they must be assuming (based on experience, local knowledge) that there are differences in the relative abundance from one portion of the stratum to the other. If this is so, it may be that this information needs to be incorporated into present survey design. The reason for this can be illustrated by a simple example. If in a particular stratum in a particular year all of the sets were allocated to areas where the local fishermen felt there were no fish, then the estimated abundance for that stratum would be very low or zero. This would then not be consistent with what the fishermen observed during that year and would result in an underestimate of the true abundance for that stratum. This, in turn, would lower the estimate of overall abundance in that year. To overcome this potential problem, the local knowledge of fish distribution at the time during which surveys are conducted, could be used to re-define the stratum boundaries such that within strata the distribution of fish is more likely to be uniform. Using this information to modify our survey stratification scheme could make it so that our assumption of uniform distribution of fish within strata would be more likely to be true. Using such an improved stratification scheme could result in more reliable estimates of abundance.

Having identified an element of historical local knowledge which could be incorporated into an aspect of the assessment process it remains to determine whether or not the form of this information is such that it actually can be incorporated into the present assessment process. To determine this we need to know where this information is, how extensive it is in terms of geographic area covered, if we can get access to it, and if it is reliable enough to make changes to the present survey stratification scheme.

Fishermen have historical knowledge about the distribution of fish within the present strata based on some number of years of experience fishing in a particular area. Some have longer histories than others in the fisheries and have, therefore, been observing these distribution patterns for longer. For example, a fisherman who has been fishing particular grounds for 20 or 30 years will have a better appreciation of the level of variability in distribution patterns that a particular species can demonstrate than a fishermen who has only fished there for 2 or three years. In order for such information to be most useful we should be incorporating the longest available (reliable) historical data series we can. This will allow us to judge whether or not a particular shift in distribution in any given year is out of the ordinary or within the range of previous observations.

Since memories are inherently unreliable and since they fade over time, particularly where details are concerned, the ideal form of this kind of information would be from actual personal logbooks. Therefore, before considering whether or not we could incorporate local historical knowledge of fish distribution to modify the present survey stratification scheme, we need to determine how much of this information is in the detailed form of logbooks and how detailed and reliable the collective memories of fishermen are about fish distribution, where logbooks are not available. Such information also needs to be closely linked to information on the relative efficiency and types of gears used since these have a large impact on perceptions of relative abundance. Fishing in any one location with different gear types could give very different impressions of the relative amounts of fish at any particular location.

The ideal form of this information would be as carefully kept personal fishing logs which recorded the data, time, latitude, longitude, depth and effort of very fishing set conducted by the fishermen. Although a portion of the information probably exists in this form and could be used directly, the majority if probably either in logbooks with a highly variable degree of detail, or exists only in the memories of the fishermen. It is likely that this information could be collected both by analyzing personal logbooks and, where these are not available, through a carefully designed interview/questionnaire process.

 

II. Distribution on Non-Target Species

In addition to historical distributional information on target species, that is species that are actively fished for such as cod, haddock, pollock, halibut, hake, redfish and some others, the above information may be available for by-catch species, species caught incidentally and probably mainly discarded. All of the same restrictions as have been outlined in I above apply to these data with the additional problem that the amount of recorded information is likely to be even smaller than is the case for the target species. It is, however, worth pursuing this information since these incidental catches may be useful as indicators of what the ecosystem as a whole was doing.

It is clear to both fishermen and fisheries scientists that the target species do not live in isolation. They are part of a more or less complicated web of interrelations both as prey and predator. These interrelations have not been taken into account in the assessment process in any significant way until very recently and then in only a very limited way. This lack of incorporation has in part been due to the general lack of detailed information non-target species in general and of non-target species in the fisheries in particular. It may be that examining the changes of other species in the ecosystem being fished will give us more clues as to how the system as a whole works. For example, what is the relationship between sculpin on Sable Island Bank and the subsequent appearance of halibut on the Bank. Are the sculpin a prey species on which halibut rely? What is the effect of removing 1200MT of shrimp on the Scotian Shelf ecosystems' ability to produce cod recruits? What is the effect of removing 40,000MT of silver hake on the survival of pollock juveniles? What is the effect of removing 100,000MT of herring on the ecosystems' ability to support cod growth and reproduction? Although the information on by-catch species composition will not necessarily lead to answers to these questions in the short-term they may, because of the long-term and relatively broad scale nature, provide new clues which will point to answers or new work leading to better predictions of future abundance. For example, there are those who maintain that the recent decline in eastern Scotian Shelf cod is, in part, due to the level of exploitation of herring stocks in the area. They maintain that the herring provide a significant food source for the cod and that by fishing the herring down, the cod are deprived of food and therefore do not grow or reproduce as well. Is there historical local knowledge about this possible linkage? Are there observations which show a decline in cod catches (or size composition) following poor herring years? Exploration of this aspect of historical local knowledge in general may also reveal indicator species, species whose presence or change in distribution or abundance precede particular changes in present target species or which herald changes in general environmental conditions (for example, the increase in the abundance of capelin on the eastern Scotian Shelf over the past number of years as an indicator of declining water temperatures).

These data could also reveal historical exploitation patterns for species which were treated as by-catch in the past, but now form the basis of commercial fisheries. An example of such a fishery would be the newly evolving skate fishery. In the past, skate were considered a nuisance in the cod and haddock directed fisheries and were discarded from the catches. Now these skate form the basis of a potentially valuable fishery. In order to determine what levels of exploitation might be appropriate for this new fishery we could examine historical local knowledge for information on the frequency and rates of skate by-catch. Knowing this would give some indication of a potentially sustainable exploitation rate given that skate appear to have survived in sufficient numbers to warrant a fishery.

This information could also be used to identify fish resources which have previously not been exploited, but which exist in sufficient numbers to potentially support a fishery.

 

III. Catch Composition and Ecological Costs

Information like the true species composition of catches (as opposed to landings) could also be used to begin determining a portion of the relative ecological costs of one fishery relative to another. Since no fishery operates without some incidental or by-catch problems exerts some pressure on the ecosystem in addition to that resulting from the actual removal of target species. Recent work by Alverson et al. (1994) which examined the problem of by-catch and discards form a global perspective, concluded that there were significant differences in the levels of by-catch and discarding between gear types and fisheries. By comparing the true catch compositions from several gear types it might be possible to begin objectively comparing their relative impacts. Once the relative impacts of various fisheries are known these can be taken into account in future management schemes. One example might be to tax fisheries on the basis of the by-catch/discard costs, where a fishery with low discards is given more access to a resource than one with high discards. This is an extremely important and urgent area of research. Alverson et al. (1994) conclude that globally, some 27 million tons of fish and shellfish are discarded each year. These are staggering figures, especially when compared to the few hundred or thousands of tons of fish which are landed in total in our region. It is likely that ways of reducing these discards will be one of the most important issues relative to future fisheries.

 

IV. Estimates of Removals

One of the most fundamental pieces of information that is required in order to predict the abundance of fish in the next time period is the total amount (number) of fish removed during the present time period. It is also one of the most difficult to obtain reliably. Since our management schemes presently use total allowable catches (TACs) to limit the removals from any particular stock there is a significant incentive to underreport actual catches. If catches are not reported, or are reported as having been taken from another stock (misreporting) it will result in a longer fishing season, and a potentially greater revenue for the fishermen. Unfortunately, since these "official statistics" of removals are presently also the only source of information that fisheries assessment scientists have available to estimate the level of exploitation of any given resource, it can result in incorrect estimates of exploitation rates. This had significant implications for the predictions of fish abundance in the following period. In general, it results in an overestimation of present stock size and inflated estimates of future abundance. It has been contended that the problems of misreporting that in recent years, with the implementation of ITQs, dockside monitoring programs, and other regulations, that catch statistics have become more reliable than they were in past years. It is, however, difficult to evaluate this contention.

Obtaining reliable historical local knowledge on levels of misreporting would allow for better evaluation of present assessment models. In other words, if the models were given the "right" information would they have done better in predicting the observed declines, or even better, would they have allowed us to formulate advice which prevented the declines. Better present estimates of catches through local knowledge would allow us to evaluate the true performance of our assessment models in estimating stock abundance and predicting future yield. All claims to the contrary notwithstanding there is still serious concern regarding the reliability of catch statistics on the part of both fishermen and fisheries scientists.

The most effective source of both the historical and present information on local knowledge of removals in this case would be either, through individual personal logbooks, if these were kept in sufficient detail, or through sales records for individuals at local fish plants if these were kept in sufficient detail.

 

Preliminary Conclusions (based only on what is presented above, point form for now)

  • There must be a willingness on the part of both fishermen and fisheries scientists/managers to adopt new ways of solving old problems.
  • Some aspects of the present process should be preserved.
  • The objectives (motives) of the providers of the knowledge could have an impact on how the knowledge is presented.
  • Local knowledge is composed of both an historical and a current component.
  • To each of these there are both quantitative and qualitative aspects.
  • Much of the historical data is available only as memories which will require development of effective surveys (interviews and questionnaires).
  • Knowledge of fish distribution could potentially be used to refine present stratification schemes for groundfish abundance surveys.
  • Knowledge on species composition of catches could allow for the development of ecological costs by which different could be compared or taxed.
  • Knowledge on the level of misreporting could be helpful in evaluating the performance of the stock assessment procedures in retrospect.